Let's Talk Sense...
Monday, October 9, 2000 Volume XXV, No. 32
Roswell, New Mexico
In this issue:
Who's Going to Win?
--------Part 4-------
Electoral College Analysis---
State-by-state
· The Midwest (It's Gore!)
· Popular vote to Exceed 101,000,000
· Electoral College Recap
· Where Does This Leave Bush?
· It doesn't have to end this way!
· LTS...Formula for victory
· Republican Media Consultants and
· built-in conflict of interest
· suspicions grow
The Midwest
Gore wins it 68-44!
Unfortunately for America (and the world for that matter) this will
likely mean a Gore presidency. Bush is simply unable to develop
the kind of Reaganesque appeal necessary to cut through the great
muddled middles of Wisconsin and Michigan---his must-win states
if he is to overcome the loss of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
(More on those two later.)
Bush will do unusually well in parts of Minnesota, Iowa, and other
places he has no chance to win. He'll do this based on the remarkable
decency of thousands of solid Lutheran and faithful Catholic voters
who know deep in their Democrat souls that Gore is a consummate
liar and that Bush, while inept in speech and all manner of communication
(as is his entire family) is still a decent human being who will
not sell his soul for power.
It won't be enough though.
(8 states----112 electoral votes)
Ohio (21), Michigan (18), Indiana (12), Illinois (22), Wisconsin
(11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), Missouri (11).
29 days out, this is the way we see it:
(Popular vote, in 000's)
State |
Bush |
Gore |
Nader |
Buch. |
Others |
Total |
Ohio |
2,224 |
2,137 |
183 |
94 |
42 |
4,680 |
Michigan |
1,785 |
1,934 |
171 |
130 |
50 |
4,070 |
Indiana |
1,170 |
957 |
60 |
27 |
26 |
2,240 |
Illinois |
2,000 |
2,395 |
179 |
80 |
46 |
4,700 |
Wisconsin |
1,085 |
1,145 |
106 |
38 |
26 |
2,400 |
Minnesota |
979 |
1,126 |
142 |
20 |
23 |
2,290 |
Iowa |
584 |
627 |
57 |
17 |
15 |
1,300 |
Missouri |
1,080 |
1,059 |
64 |
46 |
31 |
2,280 |
Totals |
10,907 |
11,380 |
962 |
452 |
259 |
|
Perc |
45.52% |
47.50% |
4.02% |
1.89% |
1.08% |
23,960,000 votes
Popular vote to Exceed
101,000,000
We project the national turnout to be about 5 million more than
voted in 1996, but still around 3 million fewer than the 1992 vote
totals.
Final Popular Vote (000s)
Region |
Bush |
Gore |
Nader |
Buch. |
Others |
East |
9,156 |
12,312 |
1,050 |
558 |
379 |
South |
11,354 |
10,512 |
197 |
416 |
204 |
West |
8,943 |
6,547 |
298 |
308 |
144 |
Pacific |
6,366 |
7,419 |
928 |
379 |
228 |
Midwest |
10,907 |
11,380 |
962 |
452 |
259 |
Total |
46,726 |
48,170 |
3,435 |
2,113 |
1,214 |
Perc. |
(45.96%) |
(47.38%) |
(3.38%) |
(2.08%) |
(1.19%) |
Gore will likely win the national popular vote by approximately
1 to 1½ million votes, or by a margin of about 1.4% over
Bush.
Electoral College Recap
Region |
Bush |
Gore |
Total |
East |
0 |
127 |
127 |
South |
123 |
0 |
123 |
West |
100 |
0 |
100 |
Pacific |
0 |
76 |
76 |
Midwest |
44 |
68 |
112 |
Total |
267 |
271 |
538 |
Where Does This Leave Bush?
It doesn't have to end this way!
LTS...Formula for Victory
As last time, nothing in the way of intel (that's information about
what's going on inside the Bush camp----not a computer chip company
in Rio Rancho) has been gleaned about where the Bush2000 team is
focusing its efforts.
We do have a suggestion however. If we were in the Bush campaign
we would schedule not one, but two three-full day stays (not swings---stays)
in Pennsylvania. Start in Lancaster County with a rally there (which
would draw 25,000 people, and hold repeated rallies in York, Cumberland
and Dauphin counties (in and around Harrisburg).
The next day he should take an old historic train ride through Chester
and Delaware Counties holding whistlestop rallies in those suburban
areas, before arriving for a major rally in Philadelphia (this is
the only one which would not be aimed at votes---he's not going
to move many in Philadelphia County but for the news coverage in
the region, and the symbolism, backdrops for which are in an overabundant
supply in Philadelphia). To close out the day Bush would then move
on to Montgomery, Bucks, Berks and Lehigh Counties. That's about
5 whistlestop speeches and 5 more major rallies in one day.
The third day of the first swing would move to Wilkes-Barre, Scranton,
Williamsport, Altoona and Johnstown.
About a week later Bush should begin a new 3-day stay by traveling
to Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), where there was a 61,000-vote
swing in favor of Dole in 1996. The rest of the day should concentrate
in Beaver, Lawrence, Westmoreland and Armstrong counties where there
was another combined 42,000 -vote swing toward Dole. The next two
days would be filled with rallies throughout western and central
Pennsylvania.
RATIONALE: Bush must have Pennsylvania!
Our calculations, previously published are well within our own margin
of error in the Keystone State, .36%, or 36 hundredths of one percentage
point (for those of you who aren't that good at math). Pennsylvania
is imminently winnable---with clear movement toward Dole in 1996.
Whereas, Michigan and Wisconsin and most of the rest of the nation
moved toward Clinton.
Most of the counties and cities mentioned either moved significantly
toward Dole, or reasonably maintained the support that had been
there already. This is significant because in about two-thirds of
the country Dole ran even weaker than President Bush had in 1992.
So in places like Pennsylvania, which is one of only 18 states where
there was any improvement at all it is important to go back in and
play to the latent strength.
Clearly in much of Pennsylvania---from the "Dutch Country"
to Beaver County on the Ohio border, there is a yearning for a return
to the values and decency which is so much a part of rural Pennsylvania.
Six days of campaigning in Pennsylvania could focus attention on
one state like no campaign has ever done---it could hearten, galvanize
and turn out the decency vote: Mennonite, Roman Catholic, Lutheran---
all the Protestant denominations---as well as those everyday Steeler,
Pirate and Penguin fans who want to do the right thing and who are
instinctively (they don't know why exactly, but they feel it) turned
off by the weasely Gore, and his total, almost effeminate, failure
as an "alpha male."
Too much time in one state? No way. There are still four weeks to
go. They should even consider 9 days in PA. Drop Illinois, cut bait
in Michigan. Campaign in Pennsylvania, and three more days each
in Tennessee, Arkansas, New Mexico and Florida, with four more days
in Missouri and Louisiana. Go back to New Hampshire one more time,
he might make it happen there. Touch down in Kentucky, do more stopovers
in Ohio and Arizona. If there is time and a way to do it, a quick
trip to Oregon, Nader could be eating in enough damage there.
Campaign where it counts now.
Republican Media Consultants and built-in conflicts of interest
We are getting suspicious
It will be a shame if we learn that MEDIA BUYS placed by prominent
Republican consultants drove the train in this election to the detriment
of the Bush Campaign.
This had better not be a case of losing the election while wasting
money where there was no chance to win---all brought about by conflict
of interest-laden Republican operatives who put their own finances
above the best interests of the GOP, and ultimately the nation.
There are those who believe these motivations are behind the millions
being spent in Illinois, California and other environs. If that
is true, we should all sit up and take notice.