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Sunday, November 18, 2000 Volume XXV, No. 40
Roswell, New Mexico

In this issue:
Election 2000:
---- How did LTS...do?
-- Our Election Eve Forecast
-- Actual Results
---- How Did Others Do?
---- Who did Second Best?

The Real Losers on Election Day:
The Bush-Cheney Team
---- No Electoral Vote Strategy
---- No Focus, No Itinerary, No discipline
---- Every Republican has a right to be angry with the Bush-Cheney Team
---- Bob Dole set an example which Bush did not learn from
---- An Electoral College Strategy is not Theoretical Physics

The East: Our Projections

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Election 2000:

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How did LTS... do?

While this question has not been foremost in our minds, we can report to you that Let's Talk Sense... proved to be the best forecaster of the outcome of the 2000 election.

With no decision on Florida, and in our opinion at this point, New Mexico, we have missed correctly projecting the outcomes in only two states: Wisconsin, which was one of two changes we made based on the Bush and Gore image changes over the course of three debates, and West Virginia, which our models simply failed to register as a Bush win at any point during the year. (We owe a US Senator's Chief of Staff a cheap meal as a result of that particular miss.)

We called Wisconsin for Bush, but Bush needed (or perhaps, needs) a 2/100ths of 1 percent switch to carry the state. In West Virginia, we were off by an embarrassing 3.04%.

Our pre-election issues, which included projected popular vote totals state-by-state, as well as an Electoral College projection, were far closer to the actual outcome than any other known projection, forecast, or guess, by any other published site....be it poll, political website, newspaper, pundit or any other known entity. [If anyone has any contrary information, please forward it to this address.]

If Florida and New Mexico go for Bush, we will have missed the final outcome by 6 votes. Our final popular vote projection for Bush is .34% (34 hundredths of one percent, for those of you who are math averse) too low. For Gore, we ended up 2.53% low . For the fifth consecutive presidential cycle we have forecast the minor party vote too high. This is consistently the least accurate component of our formulae and the psephological models they produce.

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Our Election Eve forecast
called it this way:

Bush 282 Gore 256 Nader 0 all others 0

48,301,000 46,345,000 4,336,000 2,370,000
(47.66%) (45.73%) (4.28%) (2.34%)
Total vote: 101,352,000

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Actual Results:

Bush 246 Gore 262 Nader 0 All Others 0

(Unknown: 30----With Florida and New Mexico undecided)

BUSH GORE NADER ALL OTHERS
49,658,276* 49,921,267* 2,756,008* 1,113,738**
(48.00%) (48.26%) (2.66%) (1.08%)

Total vote: 103,449,289 (incomplete)

*incomplete
**totals of Buchanan, Browne, Phillips, Hagelin, and an estimate of 114,276 for 16 others, plus write-ins.

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How Did Others Do?

A website called "Real Clear Politics" had it 446-92 in favor of Bush. Apparently the Bush Campaign (as I implied in the Election Eve issue) had a similar view. [See Comments Below]

We did see that both the Gallup and Zogby polls came in on election day with a predicted 2-point win for Gore, but both organizations projected a sizeable electoral vote win for Bush.

The Rasmussen poll missed 8 states and projected a win for Bush of 5 points and a margin of over 120 electoral votes.

The Battleground Poll was just as inaccurate.

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Who was 2nd Best?

As big fans of the on-line magazine "Mullings," we are proud to say that Rich Galen, the author of that literary digest was the second closest to the mark.

Rich scored it 297 - 241 in favor of Bush, and ended up missing the outcomes in 9 states---one more than the Rasmussen Organization, but much, much closer in the Electoral College forecast.

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The Real Losers on Election Day:
The Bush-Cheney Campaign Team

No Electoral Vote Strategy

We hate to say we told you so----but we are going to do just that. Because we stated over and over again, month after month that the Bush electoral vote strategy seemed to be no strategy at all, and that the entire campaign lacked any geographical focus or perceptible understanding of the situation.

Obviously we found this hard to believe, and continuously doubted our own misgivings. Surely, we reasoned, a staff which has so many talented people, consummate communicators and truly outstanding strategists on public policy issues and political persuasion---which it did, and still does---MUST ALSO have electoral vote strategists.

One Washington DC-based reader repeatedly told us that our misgivings were on target and that we were giving the Bush Team far too much credit. The fact is, he said, "They do NOT know what to do in terms of an electoral vote strategy." He was correct. So were we.

We kept saying month after month, and finally, again, on election eve, we reiterated:

"[the Bush Team must] "have information we don't...which shows they are going to win very, very, comfortably....otherwise) the focus of the Bush campaign makes very little sense...

"...Every time we catch a news story, they are in California (which they lost by a million votes), Washinton (lost by over 100,000) , Oregon, Illinois (lost by a half million), Minnesota (lost by over 50,000), Iowa, and West Virginia....***

"...Instead it is Gore-Lieberman whose itinerary we would have scheduled for Bush..."

No Focus, No Itinerary, No Discipline

The main point is this: Pennsylvania was winnable, and as we repeatedly stated, the Bush strategy should include BOTH Pennsylvania and Florida, but they MUST have one of them or they are doomed. We were shocked when told by phone election night--around 6:00 PM New Mexico time--that Florida had gone to Gore.

What on earth had they been doing taking banker's hours (kicked back in Austin) on this campaign, AND gallivanting in California, Minnesota, Washington and Iowa, when NEITHER Florida NOR Pennsylvania were in the bag. Some might call it stupid, arrogant, not-ready-for-prime-time! We don't know if that is fair, but we aren't impressed. We do know that Al Gore was working like a demon all the time.

Every Republican has a right to be Angry
with the Bush-Cheney Team

Every Republican who ever gave $25 to Bush-Cheney (let alone those who worked their butts off to get out the vote) has a right to be mad as hell.

If you don't know what you are doing, get help. The absence of that kind of managerial awareness in the Bush camp is telling, and serves as a warning for those of us who care about the success of a Bush Administration---if we are fortunate enough to get one. They have some real gaps.

Now look at what we have: Either a president-elect who is going to get in by the skin of his teeth, and start out in a hole (this is the BEST-case scenario by the way), or we are going to have Al Gore.

Neither of these alternatives was necessary. This election could have been won (and should have been won) by a half million in the popular vote, and with a total in the range of 290 to 299 electoral votes. All that was needed was knowledge, discipline, and focus.

The knowledge was the easiest---you can determine from electoral history, demography and the current political climate in a given state whether your candidate's image, policy positions and message will play. You have to have the focus to go where your candidate will play, and the discipline to not waste time where he won't sell----and the complete discipline, dedication and personal commitment to never go home and kick back---even for a day----until the thing is over.

Bob Dole set an Example

If Bob Dole, at 72, can tell his staff to put together a 96-hour marathon finish to the campaign in 1996, which he did----WHEN HE KNEW HE WAS GOING TO LOSE-----then George W. Bush should have had the focus, the guts, the moxie, and the heart to gut it out to the end. There aren't enough excuses in the world to make up for the poor execution of his campaign scheduling if he ends up not winning this thing.

(Many Republicans, and most conservatives never have a kind thing to say about Bob Dole, but what he did in '96---according to many---SAVED the House and the Senate for the Republicans. The selflessness and dedication he showed, at his age, in his personal circumstances, which were hopeless----contrasts sharply with what we got in the closing days of the Bush campaign.)

An Electoral College Strategy
is not Theoretical Physics

It would be one thing if there had been simply no way around this-----that there was just no way to know these things. But while campaigns are difficult, the electoral vote strategy is not brain surgery, much less rocket science or theoretical physics.

The Bush Team did the truly difficult tasks very well----the message, the media, the policy issues, the convention, the debate preparation. The Electoral College strategy is a matter of paying attention to absolutely accessible, understandable and demonstrably verifiable data. The failure to pursue a coherent strategy for victory in the Electoral College may haunt us for years to come. There is no excuse for it, and no explanation other than ineptitude.

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The East
OUR PROJECTIONS ON SEPTEMBER 17 (Unless otherwise indicated)

(Popular vote, projections shown in 000's)

Summary:

We projected the region 127-0 for Gore on September 17 and revised that in our Election Eve edition, switching New Hampshire to Bush and calling it 123-4 for Gore. In the final analyis, West Virginia went for Gore, our only incorrect call in the region. The East went 118-9 for Gore----and continues to demonstrate why it is easily the worst region in the nation for Republican presidential candidates and Republicans in general.

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***True, you could say, well, they came close in Iowa and Oregon, and they won West Virginia. West Virginia is the only point well taken. It is clear now the polls they were reading from West Virginia were accurate, thus the anomaly of the Mountaineer State's voter behavior this year (I bet it has something to do with Gore's image----no Alpha male he, a little too sissified for the Hatfield and McCoy types).