Sunday, August 22, 2004
Volume XXIX, No. 6
Roswell, New Mexico
Readership this date: 24,125
In this issue...
Albuquerque Journal Says Fraud Not Good Idea
Democrats Say: But We've Always Done it that Way
The Bernalillo County Clerk said there are 3,000 fraudulent
voter registrations -- and that number grows by hundreds every
day. Channel 13 reported people registered at vacant lots,
parking garages and strip malls. The US Attorney is investigating.
Who is to blame? Their names are right there on the forged,
bogus voter registration cards in the space showing who helped
"assist" the "applicant." They work for
ACORN and other Democrat Party shells and allied organizations---financed
by millions of dollars from people like George Soros and Moveon.org.
So what does the Democrat Party chairman say? Does he come
out against fraud? Does he even admit that the matter needs
to be investigated? No. He says that following state law is
"racist."
Democrats continue ferociously in their opposition to ballot
access by other parties in New Mexico and elsewhere. It has
become clear that fraudulent voting is the only voting supported
by John Wertheim and his Democrat Party of New Mexico ---the
only signature petitions they want gathered are those without
actual signatures, addresses, or any kind of identification.
And bonuses go to registrations for 15-year olds and younger---that
way they get to have longer careers as fraudulent voters---especially
if they are shown to live in a vacant lot.
Wertheim, an Anglo, attacked the lawsuit filed by six Latinos
-- including a Democrat and a Green -- by lamely repeating
the Democrat mantra that requiring ID abuses minorities. (That
in itself is a statement betraying incredibly stupid and apparently
unconscious racism: i.e. Wertheim is implying that minorities
-- Hispanics especially -- are uniquely incapable of producing
identification.) Wertheim in essence is saying he is automatically
assuming minorities to be tied up in illegal activities and
therefore simply can't identify themselves. This of course
is nothing short of outrageous. Unfortunately, there is no
other explanation for his repeated, mindless charges.
Then comes the six Latinos filing suit---against the likes
of Wertheim--because they want their votes to count. And they
don't want 15 year-olds "living" in vacant lots
to determine who their elected representatives are. They know
there is no reason why a Latino cannot produce an ID, and
to say otherwise is rank racism---used uniquely by Wertheim
and his Democrat organizations to provide cover for massive
fraud in voter registration, and (they hope) a massive turnout
of fake votes on election day.
Now the Albuquerque Journal is on to their act. In a courageous
editorial Sunday, the Journal risked the wrath of Governor
Richardson, the Secretary of State and other Democrat authorities
by telling the truth about voter ID. The Journal posed the
cogent question of the moment:
Minorities "...stand in line at the video shop, the grocery
store, the airport or anywhere minorities produce identification
just like anybody else who wants to buy something or go somewhere...it's
just not a problem in the commercial arena."
"But walk across the street from shop to polling place
and it becomes onerous."
We would say, "You go from Blockbuster Video to the polling
place and suddenly you can't pull out a driver's license?"
The bottom line is that thinking people are starting to listen
to the words the "pro-fraud" forces are actually
using to justify their schemes. And the words don't make any
sense.
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November Outlook: Not Great, for Now
We have been asked a number of times over the last couple
of months how things are looking. We begin to do our predictive
models in mid-September of presidential years, and complete
them one region at a time over about six weeks. Four years
ago, our final analysis showed a final Electoral College result
of Bush 282 Gore 256. We missed the outcomes in 3 states,
West Virginia, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.
Almost no one -- pundit, analyst or whatever -- will actually
take a documentable position predicting or projecting an outcome
of a presidential election, or almost any other for that matter.
Some in 2000 did. Here are their results:
Analyst | Bush | Gore | result |
Let's Talk Sense... | 282 | 256 | missed outcome in 3 states |
RealClearPolitics | 446 | 92 | missed outcome in 20 states |
Rasmussen | 330 | 208 | missed outcome in 8 states |
Gallup | 322 | 216 | missed outcome in 9 states |
Zogby | 311 | 227 | missed outcome in 10 states |
Battleground | 316 | 222 | missed outcome in 11 states |
Mullings | 297 | 241 | missed outcome in 9 states |
Bush-Cheney | 320 | 218 | missed an unknown number of states |
How do things look this year -- preliminarily, without calculating
any turnout indicators, candidate imprint models, or completing
any of the formulas?
Not great. Not terrible. As we said in January, this election
continues to remind us, more than any other historical model,
of the 1864 Presidential Election. That may change, or in
fact the dynamics may change just the way they did in 1864,
but right now we stand by that analysis. The bad news for
the Republicans is that in August 1864, President Lincoln
was a sure loser. The good news for them is that the election
is still held in November.
We are certainly far from saying that President Bush is going
to lose. After all, in September 1864, Atlanta fell, Sherman
began his famous march to the sea within a few weeks, and
by November it was clear that the war was going to be won.
Lincoln prevailed over George B. McClellan, 55-45, although
a few thousand votes in key states could have swung the race
to the Democrat nominee----and that was with victory clearly
in sight.
It is clear to us that the War on Terror is being won. President
Bush however, is up against a relentless media ---91% of whose
membership strongly supports John Kerry -- and getting out
the real story on the War on Terror is a tremendous challenge.
There is little doubt that if we had had television and radio
in the 1860s that war would have been lost and we would be
a divided country now. So, relatively speaking,George W. Bush
is in a better situation electorally than Abraham Lincoln.
Despite the steady drumbeat of false analysis by the media,
Bush is neck and neck with Kerry in the relatively meaningless
national polls --- and within reasonable striking distance
in the dozen battleground states where the election will actually
be decided.
We remain guardedly optimistic. If the Republicans can register
2,000,000 new legal voters to offset the 3,000,000 fraudulent
voter registration "forms" (as opposed to actual
human beings) being turned in by the Democrats and their allies,
then we will be very optimistic. Democrats are clearly planning
to "vote the forms" ---nationwide, or wherever they
can get election supervisors to not follow the law --- and
they could easily tip the outcome in key states.
--------------
Anchor-gate: Ethics Flap Mars Border Conference
We must give credit where credit is due. Kudos to both the
Albuquerque Tribune and the Albuquerque Journal for uncovering
and analyzing the incredible conduct of Albuquerque TV anchors
at the recent Border Governors' Conference in Santa Fe. Shea
Andersen of the Tribune broke the story on August 11:
"Say you need a smashing introduction for your political
speech. Who can you call? Apparently you call three Albuquerque
TV news reporters. At this year's Border Governors Conference,
Gov. Bill Richardson got one of the most glowing introductions
he's ever received.
Monica Armenta, the longtime morning anchorwoman for KOB-Channel
4 bestowed the honors. Armenta was followed at the podium,
at other times, by KOB anchorman Nelson Martinez and KOAT-Channel
7 anchorwoman Cynthia Izaguirre.
"Gov. Richardson has done more for New Mexico in two legislative sessions than any previous governor accomplished in decades," Armenta said in an introduction Monday.
She noted Richardson
"cut personal income taxes and capital gains taxes nearly in half"
and said Richardson has
"led New Mexico to one of the most dramatic economic turnarounds in U.S. history."
and last but not least, Armenta said Richardson:
"successfully and effectively represented the Democratic Party, New Mexico and the border region as the 2004 chair of the Democratic National Convention in Boston."
After the applause died down, Richardson returned the favor,
calling Armenta "the Katie Couric of New Mexico."
Richardson...Spokesman Paul Shipley said the anchors did not
get paid and their remarks were written by the governor's
staff. [emphasis added]
"They're well-known, high-profile anchors, and they were
willing to do it," Shipley said. "We sincerely appreciate
it. They did a great job." Mike Burgess, KOB station
manager, said his outlet welcomes the publicity his station
gets from such appearances, but aims to keep its news broadcasts
neutral... "Whatever the political leanings of our reporters,
it damn sure doesn't come out on the air."
Right. Well on to the follow up article by Leanne Potts of the Journal:
TV Journalists Crossed the Line, Ethics Expert Says
In an ideal world, journalists are unbiased chroniclers of the news who give favor to no side. So when Albuquerque TV anchorwoman Monica Armenta took the podium at the Border Governors Conference earlier this week and told the crowd that Gov. Bill Richardson had "done more for New Mexico in two regular legislative sessions than any previous governor accomplished in decades," some pundits and reporters questioned whether her effusive introduction had violated journalism's rule of impartiality.
Yes, Armenta's comments crossed the line, said an expert in media ethics.
"It is a huge conflict of interest," said Kelly McBride, who teaches ethical decision-making to professional journalists around the country at the Florida-based PoynterInstitute. "Clearly, the governor of a state is someone on whom a journalist should keep a critical eye. If the public sees this introduction, they're going to wonder where the biases are on future reporting, and if the governor expects favorable treatment from the anchors in future coverage."
Two other Albuquerque news anchors also acted as emcees
during the two-day event... KOB-TV news anchor Nelson Martinez
and KOAT-TV anchorwoman Cynthia Izaguirre... All three journalists
were provided with a 16-page script written by Paul Shipley,
a spokesman for the Governor's Office and a former news director
at KOAT-TV, Channel 7.
Armenta's remarks appeared to have come directly from the
script, which also called for the newswoman to refer to Richardson
as "my governor," and to say he had "led New
Mexico to one of the most dramatic economic turnarounds in
U.S. history." Izaguirre and Martinez were given scripts
for shorter and far less rhapsodic introductions of Richardson...
But McBride said all three news anchors damaged their credibility
by making any introductions at all, particularly from a script
provided by the Governor's Office.
"You're compromising your independence as a journalist letting someone else write the words you speak," she said. KOAT news director Sue Stephens defended Izaguirre's actions. "Cynthia told me she didn't follow the script, she spoke off the cuff," Stephens said. Stephens also said Izaguirre's appearance at the event was not a conflict of interest. "It was not a political campaign event. It was governors talking about border issues and water issues. The governor is not up for re-election."
KOB station manager Mike Burgess said his anchors did no wrong. "I don't see it as being a conflict in their neutrality," he says. "(Armenta) said nice things about the governor in front of other governors." But he said he wished he had looked at the script before journalists from his station read it in public. "I would have checked the script for the impression of favoritism. If there is anyone to blame, it's me."
Shipley said he asked the journalists to host the event because all three were familiar with Spanish and could pronounce the names of the Mexican officials they were introducing. Plus, Shipley said, he wanted to add some flash to the event— which already had a high glamour factor thanks to the attendance of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. "People like to see news anchors," Shipley said. "They're celebrities in their own right."
McBride wondered if asking journalists to emcee the event
was a strategy intended to ingratiate Richardson with the
state's media. "You can't think that it's unintentional.
It's quite brilliant on [Richardson's] part," she said.
"Rather than going toe to toe with them, he brings them
into the fold in little and big ways.
Unbelievable. But true. In New Mexico.
---------------
Feedback: Some are Happy, Some are Steamed
Response to LTS...(8-12-04)
Ballot Access
Take me off your mailing list! And by the way, it's
the Democratic Party, not the Democrat party (sic)
which is the name your guy Newt gave it because
Democratic sounded too, well..., democratic.
William D. Teel
LTS... responds:
Dear Mr. Teel:
You are removed. However before we go, one minor correction:
Mr. Gingrich did not give the name "Democrat" to
your party. It has been referred to by that name by non-members
for well over a century.
You did correctly surmise the reason: that there is nothing
particularly "democratic" about the Democratic Party.
The situation at hand -- trying to block ballot access for
others -- being only the latest example of egregiously un-democratic
conduct.
"Democratic" however it must be conceded, is something
of an improvement over its self-styled name of choice during
the 19th Century when it called itself "The Democracy"
while promoting slavery, inventing the Ku Klux Klan as its
armed auxiliary, instituting Jim Crow laws and segregation.
This moniker lasted well into the 20th Century, even as the
party was voting to support the KKK (at its 1924 convention)
and opposing Republican Civil Rights bills until its conversion---at
least by a bare majority of its congressional representation---in
1964.
We are grateful that today, the Democrats are not brazen enough
to lynch the Nader petition gatherers----something they would
not have hesitated to do just as recently as fifty years ago.
Cordially,
Let's Talk Sense...
---------------
Great Moments in Democrat History
The Democratic National Convention, meeting in Chicago in
July, 1884 to nominate Grover Cleveland for president, adopted
its platform, including this
plank:
Chinese Immigration
"We do not sanction the importation of foreign labor,
or the admission of servile races, unfitted by habits, training,
religion, or kindred, for absorption into the great body of
our people, or for the citizenship which our laws confer.
American civilization demands that against the immigration
or importation of Mongolians to these shores our gates be
closed."
---------------
Churchill on Islam
The following is a passage from the book The River War, by
Winston Churchill, written in 1899 after he had participated
in the Sudanese Campaign.
"How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays
on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as
dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this
fearful fatalistic apathy. Improvident habits, slovenly systems
of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity
of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule
or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace
and refinement: the next of its dignity and sanctity. The
fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some
man as his absolute property -- either as a child, a wife,
or a concubine -- must delay the final extinction of slavery
until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among
men.
"Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands
become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen: all know
how to die. But the influence of the religion paralyses the
social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde
force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism
is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread
throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every
step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the
strong arms of science...the civilization of modern Europe
might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome."
---------------
Still to Come:
Fahrenheit 9/11: A Review by LTS...
LUTHER, the Movie: A Review by LTS...
---------------
Sesquicentennial, 1854-2004
2004 marks the Sesquicentennial of the Republican Party, the
150th Anniversary of the second oldest political party in
the world. Senator Rod Adair is speaking around the state
on the history of the Republican Party and its unique role
in shaping America. The Grand Old Party was founded 150 years
ago in such places as Ripon, Wisconsin and Jackson, Michigan
and at least two other towns that claim it as its birthplace.
It is difficult to sort out the first among firsts because
the party literally sprang up, almost spontaneously. Fielding
its first presidential nominee in 1856, the Grand Old Party
has a record of 22 wins and 15 losses in Presidential elections.
(The Democrats have a record of 20 wins and 24 losses, having
gone 5-2 against other parties from 1828 through 1852. They
fell below .500 in 1876 and have never reached that level
again.)
The party's remarkable record includes:
1) The invention of the very concept of Civil Rights in America,
2) A commitment to an "internal development" program,
including the building of roads, ports, the transcontinental
railroad, the interstate highway system, land grant colleges
and the settling of America through the Homestead Act; 3)
The creation of the idea of conservation and the environmental
movement (also invented by the Republican Party), the setting
aside of national parks; 4) National policies that fostered
the building of American industry, allowing its development
at a critical time in our history, creating the biggest and
strongest economy the world has ever known; 5) The construct
of anti-trust and anti-monopoly laws to ensure a functioning
economy based on private enterprise and fair trade rules and
practices; 6) A not-to-be-denied determination to end slavery,
and a century-long heroic struggle against the Democrat Party
to end its vestiges: segregation, lynching, poll taxes, voting
rights discrimination, and the intimidating power of the Ku
Klux Klan; 7) Winning the battle for Women's suffrage, and
many more victories in the realm of public policy.
All these accomplishments leading up to the Republican Party's
role near the end of the 20th Century---by then alone in the
struggle---in continuing a determined fight to win the Cold
War; and into the 21st Century leading America and the world
in the fight against global terrorism. If you would like Senator
Adair to speak to your organization, please click here: SenatorRodAdair@dfn.com
and let us know.
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Subscribe to Let's Talk Sense..., Legislative Update, or New Mexico Political Journal by contacting New Mexico Demographic Research at nmdr@dfn.com
Posted by Wayne at August 29, 2004 04:20 PM